tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.comments2021-06-03T21:35:28.534-07:00Patrick M. Crowley's EconoblogPatrick M. Crowleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03422028616586099220noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-66385118916206220642016-07-11T01:13:52.310-07:002016-07-11T01:13:52.310-07:00Dear Patrick,
My late father had his happiest year...Dear Patrick,<br />My late father had his happiest years working for EFTA in Geneva when, with his English mates (and the occasional Swede), they 'got things done'. It was a personal tragedy for him when the UK joined the EEC.<br />As you have pointed out, the Norwegians are not terribly keen on Britain re-joining EFTA. As far as I know, the Swiss have remained silent. Given the absolute priority of Switzerland's relationships with our friends in Berlin and Paris, I would assume that Bern will be unhelpful.<br />This does not mean that Swiss and BrexitBritain will not collaborate where mutually convenient. The Universities are already talking about working together to maintain access to the EU - but I really wonder the extent to which the Brexit/Tory electorate gives a damn about the research universities.<br />The question for EFTA is ultimately the same as for the EU: What do the Brits bring to the table?<br />Yours,<br />Charles BruggmannCharles Bruggmannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06899135203286056355noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-26851871467309773052016-06-22T03:50:41.192-07:002016-06-22T03:50:41.192-07:00Hi Patrick - I hope all is well. I wrote something...Hi Patrick - I hope all is well. I wrote something along similar lines for the Shaw Sheet:https://shawsheet.com/2016/06/15/issue-58-2016-06-16its-the-economy-stupid-frank-onomics/<br />For what its worth I think that Vote Remain will win quite comfortably.<br />best regards<br />Adamkorkyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16709878254898525608noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-47724757483974367722016-04-12T06:57:34.205-07:002016-04-12T06:57:34.205-07:00Interesting. I think the critical missing link is ...Interesting. I think the critical missing link is how taxes/tariffs factor in, esp taxes on cap gains.<br /><br />https://www.quora.com/Should-we-end-government-barriers-to-international-free-trade/answer/Zoy-BergAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-30510520055201127402014-08-22T05:45:06.443-07:002014-08-22T05:45:06.443-07:00I agree with you analysis regarding the Fed being ...I agree with you analysis regarding the Fed being behind the curve and ultimately it require a much more proactive response. I do think that there are other reasons for the yield curve remaining so flat & this is a combination of a regulatory influence and a lack of attractive returns in other assets. On the former, banks are being forced to own more and more high quality assets to deposit at their respective central banks and there just aren't enought ot gop around (given some of the ratings changes over the last few years) this means that "core" governmnet bonds and AAA SSAs command a yield premium not justified on economic valuation grounds. On the latter. the paucity of return in shorter-dated bonds continually oushes investors out along the curve and will continue to do so will rates remain static near zero at the front-end. In addition, both equities and corporate bonds are viewed as over-valued and hence a great deal of capital is "parked" in safe UST awaiting better opportunities. AdamAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-6132898968247971072013-10-15T13:45:19.206-07:002013-10-15T13:45:19.206-07:00First graph shows the total $ amount of default by...First graph shows the total $ amount of default by the banking sector in each country. The second graph shows this as a % of GDP or the size of the economy.Patrick M. Crowleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03422028616586099220noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-41829890684365763482013-10-14T16:53:23.578-07:002013-10-14T16:53:23.578-07:00Can you explain more how the first graph relates t...Can you explain more how the first graph relates to the second graph (Global System Risk by Country - % of GDP)?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17463005100484588519noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-36214293586721601492013-09-19T01:34:47.017-07:002013-09-19T01:34:47.017-07:00Very interesting analysis in light of the Fed'...Very interesting analysis in light of the Fed's reluctance to start to taper QE. The fact that the Fed has access to, and gives credence as a target policy variable to, changes in inflation expectations may be the key. One other way they have looked at this is via TIPS breakeven curve (as well as inflation swaps) and in particular the 5yr5yr forward rate (ie the level of 5yr inflation that the market expects to prevail in 5yrs time). When measure such as this start to accelerate the Fed may be prompted to move, and this makes much more sense rather than any slavish adherence to the level of unemployment which has always been a lagging indicator.korkynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-70823783462285110432013-09-16T19:47:04.036-07:002013-09-16T19:47:04.036-07:00Magnificent site. A lot of useful information here...Magnificent site. A lot of useful information here.<br />I am sending it to several friends ans additionally sharing in delicious.<br /><br />And certainly, thanks in your effort!<br /><br />my site; live afl streaming (<a href="https://www.xing.com/topics/en/watch-australian-football-league-2013-afl-74247" rel="nofollow">https://www.xing.com/</a>)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-12879842413054628212013-09-06T04:30:38.204-07:002013-09-06T04:30:38.204-07:00This article is very apposite given the sharp rise...This article is very apposite given the sharp rise in yields yesterday. 5 and 10yr bonds have borne the brunt of the correction over the last year and may continue to do, while the longer end can continue to outperform if the Fed is still seen as keeping the inflation "genie" in its bottle. In this regard it is worth comparing movements in the TIPS curve to see how the market sees the inflation outlook developing. Over the last year TIPS have under performed their nominal counterparts by 20-30bp in the 5-10yr area and, given that real yields remain negative out to 5yrs, I would suggest that some further underperformance is likely here and so selling shorter dated TIPS may be the optimal way to express the views in your blog.korkyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16709878254898525608noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-13494560023247129432013-04-15T06:31:07.378-07:002013-04-15T06:31:07.378-07:00Most ineteresting Patrick.
But remember, Thacther ...Most ineteresting Patrick.<br />But remember, Thacther had balls, to stand up to Scargill who was the real ruin of the North of England. The todate The Baronessis the only female PM that the UK has had. The Coversative Party have had a Jew and a female as their Leader, no other party, however progresive they think they are can match that. Lady Thacther's death might justy be the saviour of the Elections for the tories in 2015. There is still no alternative and Glegg wants out and into Brusssels, and Milliband has no balls.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-22476881389770787892013-03-31T17:01:31.967-07:002013-03-31T17:01:31.967-07:00This is quite interesting. What I think is particu...This is quite interesting. What I think is particularly characteristic of financial crises is that they often seem to be tied either to corrupt behavior or blatantly incompetent risk management. There still exist financial assets that seem to accomplish more obfuscation than diversification of risk. This is unacceptable, and they are traded by insufficiently trained eyes. Bloomberg News is cluttered almost weekly with reports on legal cases and investigations into insider trading, LIBOR and EURIBOR rigging, fraud, etc.<br /><br />It seems quite feasible that financial crisis-induced recessions carry longer recoveries due to inadequate or mistaken policy responses. Austerity can of course be a powerful tool to fix some structural problems, but examples abound in which we can see it's a strategy better suited for the good times, while fiscal and monetary policy can address the shorter term symptoms which really help citizens "on the ground" and create scaffolding necessary to sustain demand until things pick up. In either case, I feel like the structural problems aren't being treated at their roots, with banks remaining free to do the same things they've been doing for over a decade. It's such a shame, because banks can play such a positive role, yet they've lately felt like thorns in the paws of nearly every modern economy in Europe.Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10425018806241677435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-14006906100104665872012-12-27T19:47:54.629-08:002012-12-27T19:47:54.629-08:00This was a very good read, Dr. Crowley. It was ref...This was a very good read, Dr. Crowley. It was refreshing - maybe even relieving - to hear your point about it being more of a "paraglide." The actions of the cliff did strike me as reasonable, but they seemed rather abrupt as opposed to a gradual tapering-off. It seems like few politicians have been referencing the early (hasty?) austerity experiments all around Europe, which serve as convenient cautionary tales with immediacy and relevancy to what we've been facing here in the US. You couldn't have done a better job of making the point about needing to get the timing right.<br /><br />The Republican party is becoming horribly fractured. As Tea Party and neoconservative types continue to exile traditional conservatives and moderate Republicans, I think the party will become less fractured after an exodus of former moderates who will likely go independent under a third party (or perhaps unaffiliated), or join the Democratic party. I can only imagine such polarization will lead to intense brinkmanship and political deadlock.<br /><br />If there is to be a new mechanism for fiscal policy, I think it's perhaps best if we avoid creating further degrees of separation between fiscal policy and voters. Perhaps more routine/short-term fiscal functions should be moved exclusively under the purview of the executive branch (perhaps even under a non-departmental independent Fed-like entity), leaving extraordinary and long-term fiscal decisions to congress.<br /><br />As it stands now, I will be one of countless employees of federal grant-funded programs to not have a job as of January 2 due to the immediate halt in funds disbursements from the automatic cuts. It's possible however, that if a deal were reached after January 1, perhaps by late February as Warren Buffet estimates, that it will amount to only a month or so off. I would very much like fiscal responsibility in the US, but it's unnerving and frustrating that it should bludgeon the citizenry so suddenly when the poisonous fiscal problems we're dealing with were allowed 8+ years to be forced upon us by an uneducated leadership installed by a misinformed electorate. So I am really hoping, deal or no-deal, that it will be a paraglide as you've suggested.Martinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10425018806241677435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-77022436546681736772012-12-10T11:53:13.943-08:002012-12-10T11:53:13.943-08:00Patrick, enjoyed reading this... got some insight ...Patrick, enjoyed reading this... got some insight on how all the dodges work. ThanksMartin Heaneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17750013525990820201noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-90688285187485199852012-09-25T09:21:03.756-07:002012-09-25T09:21:03.756-07:00Patrick, Thanks for the really interesting blog, I...Patrick, Thanks for the really interesting blog, I really enjoyed reading it. Just one amendment though, I think you'll find The pic of DC and Boris is actually from a tennis match they watched featuring Andy Murray not the NHS component of the opening ceremony (see link below) <br /><br />http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2170682/Andy-Murray-gave-hold-head-high-Robert-Hardman.html <br /><br />Looking forward to future instalments.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13287951974815373130noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-14518915054731287662012-08-10T05:25:33.099-07:002012-08-10T05:25:33.099-07:00Thank you, Patrick. Spot on analysis. Osborne behi...Thank you, Patrick. Spot on analysis. Osborne behind the curve in so many ways and agree the battle to create confidence is crucial.<br /><br />MTHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-54908098316380809982011-11-16T15:55:57.519-08:002011-11-16T15:55:57.519-08:00that is weird because I was thinking what if the E...that is weird because I was thinking what if the EU was simular to the swastika with it been a circle in the middleAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-26522802266997628822011-10-10T12:13:33.814-07:002011-10-10T12:13:33.814-07:00Just a couple of days after your blog post, the go...Just a couple of days after your blog post, the good news came for US:<br /> <br />The trade deficit narrowed to $44.8 billion in July, down 13.1 percent from June, an improvement that reflected a 3.6 percent rise in exports to the record level of $178 billion. Imports dipped 0.2 percent to $126.9 billion.<br /><br />I totally agree with you,Dr. Crowley. There are a lot of things to do for Americans to decrease the trade deficit, starting with education.<br /><br />I think Americans are either not aware of what they have or they don't know how to market it. In technology, they are doing great, but it always seems like Chinese people are doing the best. In US, common wisdom says, 'China is stealing our technology, steal our jobs, steal our money.' And the data shows the same. China is stealing billions of $ from US every year. <br /><br />However, we all know that we should keep our personal belongings with us, or else we can lose them or someone can have them :). <br /><br />Then why are Americans giving that advantage to China or other countries ? <br /><br />Almost everyone whether they will buy or not, are waiting for the new Iphone 5. In mid August, China's top online-retail company, Taobao, already started selling HiPhone 5 devices that reflect the rumored features of Apple's upcoming iPhone 5, including a slimmed-down design and rounded edges for 210 yuan ($33). The more-expensive versions retail for as much as 850 yuan ($132).<br /><br />Even though I am an international student in US, the scene is making me sad. The top companies hire a lot of international employees instead of US citizens. The current U.S.A. population is over 311 million people and I am sure there are many US citizens who can do even better. However education ! It is the main point. Americans have to do a lot more for young generations to get educated.Damla Eytemiznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-13447780546711530842011-07-31T17:05:06.125-07:002011-07-31T17:05:06.125-07:00FascinatingFascinatingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-28282889173449929192011-07-29T07:37:20.543-07:002011-07-29T07:37:20.543-07:00Interesting blog Dr. Crowley but poor analysis…
H...Interesting blog Dr. Crowley but poor analysis…<br /><br />How easy it is to focus on an isolated incident from the radical right and somehow conclude that it is the right’s ideologies that lead to such travesties in the world since your rationale seems to be that the left has always had mankind’s best interest at heart. I suppose then one can be forgiving to the likes of Adolf Hitler, Mao Zedong, Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin; who imposed their visions of great societies for the common good of the masses but came with hefty prices, some of which is still reverberating today. The riots in Greece, extreme PETA or Greenpeace activists, Arab Spring - Libyan Rebels, etc…which have caused considerable damage and do not appear to me a peaceful bunch but can be more forgiving since it is covered under the umbrella of the ‘intent’ of the greater good. <br /><br />As for the merits or demerits of gun control laws themselves, a vast amount of evidence, both from the United States and from other countries, shows that keeping guns out of the hands of law-abiding citizens does not keep guns out of the hands of criminals. It is not uncommon for a tightening of gun control laws to be followed by an increase-- not a decrease-- in gun crimes, including murder.<br /><br />We hear a lot about countries with stronger gun control laws than the United States that have lower murder rates. But we very seldom hear about countries with stronger gun control laws than the United States that have higher murder rates, such as Russia, Brazil and Mexico.<br /><br />Some of our biggest political fallacies come from accepting words as evidence versus realities. …For example, ‘gun control’ laws do not control guns. The District of Columbia’s very strong laws against gun ownership have done nothing to stop the high murder rate in Washington. New York had very strong gun control laws decades before London did. But the murder rate in New York has been some multiple of that in London for more than two centuries, regardless of which city had the stronger gun control laws at a given time. Back in 1954, when there were no restrictions on owning shotguns in England and there were far more owners of pistols then than there were decades later, there were only 12 cases of armed robbery in London. By the 1990s, after stringent gun controls laws were imposed, there were well over a thousand armed robberies a year in London. In the late 1990s, after an almost total ban on handguns in England, gun crimes went up another ten percent. The reason — too obvious to be accepted by the intelligentsia — is that law-abiding people became more defenseless against criminals who ignored the law and kept their guns.Enriquehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03999931500902748995noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-32909737933025863972011-07-28T17:38:01.702-07:002011-07-28T17:38:01.702-07:00It's no surprise that right-wing extremism and...It's no surprise that right-wing extremism and religious fundamentalism are yet again at the center of terror. Timothy McVeigh, the Unabomber, and Breivik are the most notable examples. I would throw a few others into the mix, such as Jared Lee Loughner who shot Gabrielle Giffords - despite his likely schizophrenia and his paranoid predispositions, he embraced the views found at the heart of right-wing conspiracy theories: a secret cabal seeking to establish a bureaucratic collectivist one world government under the moniker "New World Order", and all of the conspiracy theories that cascade downward (9/11 Inside Job, FEMA Death Camps, Federal Reserve Ownership, Chemtrails, et al.). Just last year in fact, or perhaps the year before, the FBI arrested a group of Christian fundamentalists who embraced millenarianism and were training for a plot to plant bombs in a cemetery and blow up police attending an officer's funeral, and then attack survivors and first responders with firearms. Scholars of conspiracy theories such as Michael Barkun and Chip Berlet often link the embrace of far right-wing views and borderline paranoid schizophrenia, and suggest that they're common among conspiracists spreading counterknowledge.<br /><br />Thankfully we have law enforcement tirelessly working, but we have to make sure we don't abuse innocent citizens (with garbage like the PATRIOT Act), or incite the very terrorism that spits at us (through our foreign policy: illegitimate wars, financing and arming oppressors of people living under would-be democracies). Noam Chomsky has a lot of great literature on America's dirty history and the breakdown in America's foreign policy not reflecting what most average citizens consider to be our true "American values" (liberty, prosperity, peace, security). More people hate us for our foreign deeds rather than our lifestyle's conflict with their faith. It'd be so interesting to see what trials would follow if we held our military and political leaders accountable by ratifying the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice, because they don't seem to be accountable to us for the things they do to others using our taxes and our youths.<br /><br />Gun control is perhaps the one thing I am most torn on. I have not been able to fully justify hopping down onto one side of the fence. On the one hand, I'm a "Texan" who very well accepts the rationales offered in name of self-defense and family protection (even recreation). Albeit anecdotal, who can argue that a criminal walking into a town where he suspects each citizen is armed is less likely to rob anyone there, versus the criminal walking into a town where he suspects he is the only one armed? It's a simplification, but well-reasoned. I also wonder what things might have been like in scenarios like the Rwandan Genocide - would "as many" people have been slaughtered without opposition if the majority of Tutsi citizens had been armed with firearms? After all, most of the killing was carried out by youthful Hutu militias such as the Interahamwe who used machetes that the extremist Hutu Government imported from China at 10 cents a piece! The very visible example of "nuclear deterrence" (Mutually assured destruction) would seem to justify a situation where multiple parties being armed makes each party think twice.<br /><br />However, I am very concerned about so many weapons manufactured in the US and Europe making their way into the hands of very immature and unjustifiable hands. Some probably chalk that up as a symptom of a military-industrial complex. While I think personal protection is important, I abhor interest groups like the National Rifle Association, which is really nothing other than a huge lobbying arm of gun manufacturers - I don't think they have any genuine interest in preserving the 2nd Amendment's "Right to Bear Arms" (they read it as "to Buy Arms").Martinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-10840776819049194022011-07-15T01:39:50.230-07:002011-07-15T01:39:50.230-07:00You're right. Why even have a debt ceiling? ...You're right. Why even have a debt ceiling? Just raise it as we've done every time in the past. What can it hurt? Eventually maybe the government will on it's own decide to shrink itself, right? Interesting this article is paired with the article about the EU problems. True, the US default would be voluntary.. this time..just as I'm sure Greece, at one time, had control of it's destiny and budget, and made bad, populist decisions.<br />That said, I think the Republicans should get what little they can in exchange for raising the debt ceiling without giving the Democrats any of their purely symbolic, face saving tax increases. I'd rather they use a govt. shut down as the hostage rather than the debt ceiling because of the international repercussions. Then they should concentrate on winning the Senate, House, and White House. And actually do something with it, unlike the Democrats who frittered away 2 years of a super majority.<br />I enjoy your blog. Never really had the time or money for a college education, so I try to get smart on the cheap reading as much as I can.<br />Thanks again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-43647760887822724152011-06-21T08:17:55.198-07:002011-06-21T08:17:55.198-07:00Economists can put forward whatever proposals they...Economists can put forward whatever proposals they like....there may be a 'right' (or should I say optimal?) answer to all of this but European electorates have never been very good at doing the 'right' thing and it's unlikely that we are going to start now!! Until ALL politicians bite the proverbial bullet we'll unfortunately be led by a passive majority who prefer to believe a reactionary self-serving media.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-56210805082862705242010-12-21T03:00:19.555-08:002010-12-21T03:00:19.555-08:00This is not a defense - the crime stats are unacc...This is not a defense - the crime stats are unacceptable - but :<br /><br />The national crime statistics, covering the year ending 31 March 2010, suggest that violent crime is on the decline in the country, with murder down by 8.6%, attempted murder down by 6.1% and sexual crimes down by 4.4%. <br /><br />http://www.southafrica.info/news/crimestats2010d.htmmichael melvillhttp://www.tickertalk.co.zanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-65988201832748683422010-12-21T02:52:11.570-08:002010-12-21T02:52:11.570-08:00Read the blogs of a friend of mine spending christ...Read the blogs of a friend of mine spending christmas in Equitorial Guinea ( http://www.tickertalk.co.za/blog.php?user=munchcurrie&blogentry_id=2589 )which entirely complements the points you make.<br /><br />"Is there really a question as to why the Chinese are making such head-roads into the whole world? Surely this is a lesson for any enterprising African company. Europe is rotten and fat and bloated, and they charge ridiculous fees just so that their spoilt young ex-pat engineers can live in luxury, getting hammered on Heineken and european wines every night, driving the latest Toyota Cruiser, and getting a huge tax-free “living-in-a-backward-country” allowance. The Chinese don´t get this, and their price is way, way lower. Surely the African companies can get in there somewhere in the middle, with the “brother working with brother” as a huge selling point?"michael melvillhttp://www.tickertalk.co.zanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6270292565217538742.post-13528317957651362332010-12-09T11:41:48.759-08:002010-12-09T11:41:48.759-08:00Many Greeks started moving to Turkey to look for j...Many Greeks started moving to Turkey to look for jobs. It was vice versa only a year ago. The world is rapidly changing.Matthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06233904232553916759noreply@blogger.com